Dr Paul Jourdan - CEODr Paul Jourdan co-founded Amati Global Investors following the management buyout of Noble Fund Managers from Noble Group in January 2010, having joined Noble in 2007 as Head of Equities. His fund management career began in 1998 with Stewart Ivory, where he gained experience in UK, emerging market, and global equities. In 2000, Stewart Ivory was taken over by First State and Paul became manager of what is now TB Amati UK Smaller Companies Fund. In 2004, he was appointed Head of UK Equities at First State. In early 2005, he launched Amati VCT plc and he also manages Amati VCT 2 after the investment management contract moved to Amati Global Investors in 2010 (In 2018 Amati VCT merged into Amati VCT 2 which was then renamed Amati AIM VCT). Prior to 1998, Paul worked as a professional violinist, including a four-year period with the City of Birmingham Symphony Orchestra. He currently serves as a Director of Sistema Scotland and Clean Trade, both of which are UK registered charities.
Have investors become too optimistic about the impact of a Trump presidency?
Posted by Paul Jourdan on 19/Jan/2017
There is a lot of misguided commentary about both the Brexit Bounce and the Trump Bump (or as it may be known in future the Trumpski Bumpski). People assume that because the market at first fell and then rose following these events, investors believe that the doomsayers were wrong and both outcomes are perfectly fine. This analysis is wrong-headed. The truth is that UK stock market would be a lot higher (in US dollar terms) if neither Brexit nor Trump had happened. The markets rose in 2016 because the finely wrought multi-year recovery plan from the 2009 crisis, of which low interest rates were a key part, has been broadly working. But investors delayed buy decisions until after the feared polling events, and once they were out of the way the weight of money was always likely to drive markets higher. The market's verdict on Trump will come several years later, and on current showing we should expect this to be dire. But before you sell any shares consider the odds that Trump doesn't remain in office through his first 100 days, for the Emperor Has No Clothes.